Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Stock James H. Watson Mark W.
Innbundet / 1993 / Engelsk

Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9780226774886
Publisert
1993-11-15
Utgiver
Vendor
University of Chicago Press
Vekt
652 gr
Høyde
23 mm
Bredde
16 mm
Dybde
3 mm
Aldersnivå
UU, UP, P, 05, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
Antall sider
348

Redaktør
Stock James H.
Watson Mark W.

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting

Stock James H. Watson Mark W.
Innbundet / 1993 / Engelsk
Stock James H. Watson Mark W.
Innbundet / 1993 / Engelsk
Nettpris:
1.243,-
Laveste pris siste 30 dager: 1.237,-
Status uviss - sendes når tilgjengelig
Klikk og hent
The inability of forecasters to accurately predict the recent recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis. The volume begins with an examination of the historical performance of economic forecasts, using data collected from a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasters from 1968 through 1990. Strengths and weaknesses of these predictions are discussed and new insights into the potential and limitations of forecasting are provided. The following three chapters use recently developed statistical techniques for predicting recessions and expansions, and examine the performance of these techniques during the 1990-91 recession. Chapter five explores why the spread between public and private interest rates has been a good predictor of real economic activity. Chapter six examines the relation between the duration of a business cycle and the likelihood of its end. The final two chapters discuss methods for economic time series and forecasting.
Les mer
In this volume, economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time - series analysis.
Les mer
Acknowledgments Introduction James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson 1. Twenty-Two Years Of The NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects And Comparisons Of Forecasting Performance Victor Zarnowitz And Phillip Braun Comment: Allen Sinai 2. A Procedure For Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues And Recent Experience James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson Comment: Kenneth F. Wallis 3. Estimating Event Probabilities From Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation Ray C. Fair Comment: James D. Hamilton 4. A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Christopher A. Sims Comment: Pierre Perron 5. Why Does The Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? Benjamin M. Friedman And Kenneth N. Kuttner Comment: Ben S. Bernanke 6. Further Evidence On Business Cycle Duration Dependence Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, And Daniel E. Sichel Comment: Bruce E. Hansen 7. Dynamic Index Models For Large Cross Sections Danny Quah And Thomas J. Sargent Comment: John Geweke 8. Modelling Non-Linearity Over The Business Cycle Clive W.J. Granger, Timo Terdsvirta, And Heather Anderson Comment: Andrew Harvey Contributors Author Index Subject Index
Les mer

Relaterte produkter

The inability of forecasters to accurately predict the recent recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis. The volume begins with an examination of the historical performance of economic forecasts, using data collected from a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasters from 1968 through 1990. Strengths and weaknesses of these predictions are discussed and new insights into the potential and limitations of forecasting are provided. The following three chapters use recently developed statistical techniques for predicting recessions and expansions, and examine the performance of these techniques during the 1990-91 recession. Chapter five explores why the spread between public and private interest rates has been a good predictor of real economic activity. Chapter six examines the relation between the duration of a business cycle and the likelihood of its end. The final two chapters discuss methods for economic time series and forecasting.
Les mer
In this volume, economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time - series analysis.
Les mer
Acknowledgments Introduction James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson 1. Twenty-Two Years Of The NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects And Comparisons Of Forecasting Performance Victor Zarnowitz And Phillip Braun Comment: Allen Sinai 2. A Procedure For Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues And Recent Experience James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson Comment: Kenneth F. Wallis 3. Estimating Event Probabilities From Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation Ray C. Fair Comment: James D. Hamilton 4. A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Christopher A. Sims Comment: Pierre Perron 5. Why Does The Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? Benjamin M. Friedman And Kenneth N. Kuttner Comment: Ben S. Bernanke 6. Further Evidence On Business Cycle Duration Dependence Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, And Daniel E. Sichel Comment: Bruce E. Hansen 7. Dynamic Index Models For Large Cross Sections Danny Quah And Thomas J. Sargent Comment: John Geweke 8. Modelling Non-Linearity Over The Business Cycle Clive W.J. Granger, Timo Terdsvirta, And Heather Anderson Comment: Andrew Harvey Contributors Author Index Subject Index
Les mer

Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9780226774886
Publisert
1993-11-15
Utgiver
Vendor
University of Chicago Press
Vekt
652 gr
Høyde
23 mm
Bredde
16 mm
Dybde
3 mm
Aldersnivå
UU, UP, P, 05, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
Antall sider
348

Redaktør
Stock James H.
Watson Mark W.

Relaterte produkter