Lars Tvede's story moves back in time to the Scottish gambler and financial genius, John Law, and then on the distracted Adam Smith, the stockbroker Ricardo, the investment banker Thornton, the extrovert Schumpeter, the speculator Jay Gould and many others.

List of Figures and Tables vii Preface xiii Part I The Discovery of Business Cycles 1 1. Gambling Man 3 2. Cash Payment 19 3. The Dream Team of Money 27 4. The Napoleon of Finance 47 5. Jay and the Phantom Gold 57 6. Seven Pioneers 67 Part II The First Business Cycle Theories 81 7. The Golden Era 83 8. The Archeologists 101 9. Fisher and Babson 107 10. Keynes and the Austrians 117 11. The Great Depression 127 12. Lover, Horseman, Economist 141 13. The Problem with Money 153 Part III A Hidden World 165 14. The Simulators 167 15. Brains of Steel 189 16. Fat Tails and All That 199 17. Monkey See, Monkey Do 213 18. Dot Bomb 231 Part IV The Essence 239 19. The State of the Art 241 20. Three Questions 251 21. The Five Main Drivers of Cycles 257 22. The Ten Challenges of Central Banking 271 Part V Business Cycles and Asset Prices 305 23. The Mother of All Cycles: Property 307 24. When Art was In 333 25. All That Glitters 349 26. What Things are Made of: Commodities 367 27. Bonds, Stocks and Funds 379 28. The World’s Biggest Market: Foreign Exchange 391 29. Business Cycles and Market Rotation 399 Afterword: The Beat of the Heart 421 Appendix 1: List of Important Events in Business Cycle Theory 423 Appendix 2: List of the Largest Financial Crises in History 429 Chapter Notes 433 Bibliography 449 Index 471

“The Intelligent Investor and The Warren Buffett Way are regarded by many as the two most important books written for equity investors. Lars Tvede’s Business Cycles is the best ever written book about business and investment cycles. Reading this book will enhance investors ability to understand price swings in bonds, commodities, equities and real estate.” Jörgen Chidekel, President and founder of ProValue AG “The title Business Cycles may sound like a scientific lecture on high standing economic topics. In fact, the book addresses a series of economic themes and their historic evolution. Written in a fresh and catching language, the recounts are putting the reader’s mind into the settings of the time. This book is definitely a value, great to read – and is fun at the same time, for laymen and experts.”Thomas K. Escher, Vice Chairman Wealth Management, UBS “As a venture capitalist I often find myself exposed to the fluctuations in the general economy for both the good, and the bad. Lars Tvede’s book is the best explanation of these cycles that I have ever read. His approach is clear and entertaining, yet without being simplistic. Its a great read. I strongly recommend this book to anyone relying on business cycles in their daily lives.”Frank Ewald, Partner – IVS A/S Denmark Acclaim from previous editions of Business Cycles “Economic theory does unfortunately not always follow a path of continues progress, where the latest theories always are better than the previous. Good theories are often put aside to leave space for some new ones that are vastly inferior. Valuable knowledge was, for instance, thrown overboard with the ‘Keynesian revolution’. It is therefore well justified that Lars Tvede has included the history of theories; from the Sun King until present day, and that he emphasizes this in his book. That we are not only given these theories, but that these also are explained through instructive anecdotes about the economists and the environment that influenced them is only enhancing the understanding in an interesting way.”Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Prime Minister, Denmark