A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to
predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great
Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers
who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the
aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives
and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune
tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J.
Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive
methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the
boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they
failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman
paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the
rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least
foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their
failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make
the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and
shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range
of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised
questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is
merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy
forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events
that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling,
Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent
to capitalism itself.
Les mer
Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9781400849864
Publisert
2013
Utgiver
Vendor
Princeton University Press
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Digital bok
Forfatter