Preface and Acknowledgements 1 1 Introduction and Overview: Judgments, Decisions, and Rationality 2 2 The Nature and Analysis of Judgment 8 3 Judging Probability and Frequency 18 4 Judgmental Distortions: The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic and Hindsight Bias 32 5 Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments 40 6 Covariation, Causation, and Counterfactual Thinking 54 7 Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty 64 8 Preference and Choice 78 9 Confidence and Optimism 92 10 Judgment and Choice over Time 106 11 Dynamic Decisions and High Stakes: Where Real Life Meets the Laboratory 118 12 Risk 132 13 Decision Making in Groups and Teams 146 14 Cooperation and Coordination 160 15 Intuition, Reflective Thinking, and the Brain 174 Appendix 188 References 189 Sources and Credits 209 Author Index 211 Subject Index 219

Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. It examines assessments of probability, frequency and causation; as well as how decisions are rendered under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Topics covered include dynamic, everyday and group decision making; individual differences; and the nature of mind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making. Offering up-to-date theoretical coverage, including perspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience, this volume has everything a psychology student needs for BPS accreditation, whilst drawing out the practical applications for non-psychology students with plentiful examples from business, economics, sport, law and medicine. The latest addition to the BPS Textbooks in Psychology series, this thorough text provides a succinct, reader-friendly account of the field of judgment and decision making. For more information and resources visit www.blackwellpublishing.com/judgment

“A readable, incisive and eloquent introduction to a fascinating field: short, snappy, scholarly and up to date. Hardman tells the reader what they need to know about judgment and decision making, as well as why they need to know it.” –Professor Nick Chater, Cognitive and Decision Sciences, University College London “Very clearly written, an engagingly wide sampling of key topics in JDM, and solidly based in the core classic and recent literature. Perhaps the best JDM teaching text I have seen.” –Terry Connolly, Eller Professor of Management and Organizations, University of Arizona and Past President of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making “This book takes students seriously. It gives them excellent coverage of judgment and decision making, revealing the richness of the ideas that have been developed in this area over the last couple of decades. The writing is crisp, the tone is friendly, and the dual emphasis on theory and its relevance to practical concerns is clear from the start.” –Nigel Harvey, Professor of Judgment and Decision Research, University College London “David Hardman's book on judgment and decision making is the best textbook I have read in the field. The book presents a complete, detailed and updated view of findings and research in decision sciences. I was impressed by how succinctly the author discusses complicated themes in the field. I was also impressed by the broad coverage of topics, including classical ones as well as emerging topics, such as dynamic decision making and naturalistic approaches. This is simply the most complete textbook on judgment and decision making in existence today. Definitely an excellent choice to use in the classroom in introductory decision science courses.” –Cleotilde Gonzalez, Associate Research Professor and Director of Dynamic Decision Making Laboratory, Social and Decision Sciences Department, Carnegie Mellon University

Preface and Acknowledgements. 1. Introduction and Overview: Judgments, Decisions, and Rationality. 2. The Nature and Analysis of Judgment. 3. Judging Probability and Frequency. 4. Judgmental Distortions: The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic and Hindsight Bias. 5. Assessing Evidence and Evaluating Arguments. 6. Covariation, Causation, and Counterfactual Thinking. 7. Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty. 8. Preference and Choice. 9. Confidence and Optimism. 10. Judgment and Choice over Time. 11. Dynamic Decisions and High Stakes: Where Real Life Meets the Laboratory. 12. Risk. 13. Decision Making in Groups and Teams. 14. Cooperation and Coordination. 15. Intuition, Reflective Thinking, and the Brain. References. Author Index. Subject Index