The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.
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1. Introduction Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon; 2. How to build a warning system Paul Bracken; 3. Intelligence management as risk management: the case of surprise attack Uzi Arad; 4. Nuclear proliferation epidemiology: uncertainty, surprise, and risk management Lewis A. Dunn; 5. Precaution against terrorism Jessica Stern and Jonathan B. Wiener; 6. Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty Paul K. Davis; 7. Managing energy security risks in a changing world Coby van der Linde; 8. What markets miss: political stability frameworks and country risk Preston Keat; 9. The risk of failed state contagion Jeffrey Herbst; 10. Conclusion: managing strategic surprise Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon.
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'Politicians tell us it is a dangerous world but promise absolute security. Responsible policymakers, however, have to move beyond platitudes and learn to cope with risk and uncertainty. This volume forces the reader to think - and ought to be required reading for the next administration.' Nikolas K. Gvosdev, editor of The National Interest
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Asks whether risk management techniques can be successfully applied to contemporary national security challenges.

Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9780521883153
Publisert
2008-08-07
Utgiver
Vendor
Cambridge University Press
Vekt
660 gr
Høyde
234 mm
Bredde
156 mm
Dybde
24 mm
Aldersnivå
P, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
Antall sider
336

Biographical note

Paul Bracken is Professor of Management and Political Science at Yale University. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and works with private equity and hedge funds on using scenarios for investment strategies. Ian Bremmer is President of Eurasia Group, the world's largest political risk consultancy. He is also Senior Fellow at the World Policy Institute and a columnist for the Financial Times. His research focuses on states in transition, global political risk, and US national security. David Gordon is Director of Policy Planning at the US Department of State. He previously served as Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and is the former Director of the CIA's Office of Transnational Issues (OTI). He has directed major analytic projects on country-level economic and financial crises, emerging infectious disease risks, global demographic trends, and the changing geopolitics of energy.