The fifth edition of the classic text Thinking and Deciding updates the broad overview of the field of judgments and decisions offered in previous editions. It covers the normative standards used to evaluate conclusions, such as logic, probability, and various forms of utility theory. It explains descriptive accounts of departures from these standards, largely in terms of principles of cognitive psychology, emphasizing the distinction between search processes and inferences. Chapters cover decisions under risk, decision analysis, moral decisions and social dilemmas, and decisions about the future. Although the book assumes no particular prerequisites beyond introductory high-school algebra, it is most suited to advanced undergraduates, early graduate students, and active researchers in related fields, such as business, politics, law, medicine, economics, and philosophy.
Preface; Part I. Thinking in General: 1. What is thinking?; 2. The study of thinking; 3. Rationality; 4. Logic; Part II. Probability and Belief: 5. Normative theory of probability; 6. Descriptive theory of probability judgment; 7. Hypothesis testing; 8. Judgment of correlation and contingency; 9. Actively open-minded thinking (AOT); Part III. Decisions and Plans: 10. Choice under uncertainty: normative theory; 11. Choice under uncertainty: descriptive theory; 12. Risk; 13. Choice under certainty; 14. Utility measurement; 15. Decision analysis and values; 16. Quantitative judgment; 17. Moral judgment and choice; 18. Fairness and justice; 19. Social dilemmas: cooperation v. defection; 20. Decisions about the future; Index.
'This is the definitive textbook on decision making, reflecting Baron's unmatched combination of intellectual breadth and precision. Grounded in fundamentals, this book integrates seamlessly across disciplines and incorporates the most important new ideas. It's an ideal introduction for students and a vital reference for seasoned scholars - a remarkable achievement.' Joshua Greene, Harvard University, USA
A thorough introduction to the basic principles of judgments and decisions, emphasizing explanations over simple review of facts.
Cambridge University Press