Preface xv Acknowledgements xvii About the Author xix 1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business 1 2 Previous Predictions have been Accurate 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate 3 2.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000–2005 6 2.4 How Well did we do? 7 2.5 Our Predictions for 2005–2010 8 2.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now? 9 2.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future 9 3 How to put Together a Forecast 11 4 The Current Position 13 4.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position 13 4.2 Mobile Communications 14 4.2.1 Cellular 14 Introduction to Cellular [1–3] 14 2G Cellular 15 3G Cellular 17 WiMax for Mobile Applications 18 ‘4G’ Cellular 19 Convergent Technologies 21 Summary for Cellular 22 4.2.2 Private Mobile Radio 22 Introduction 22 Analogue Communications 23 Digital Communications 23 4.2.3 Mobile Mesh Systems 24 4.2.4 Cognitive Radio 25 4.3 Fixed wireless 27 4.3.1 Introduction 27 4.3.2 Key Drivers for Fixed Wireless 27 4.3.3 Key Competitors to Fixed Wireless 28 4.3.4 Likely Success of Fixed Wireless 28 4.3.5 Enlarging the Market with a Nomadic Offering 29 4.3.6 The Prognosis for Fixed Wireless 29 4.4 Short-range Devices 30 4.4.1 Introduction 30 4.4.2 Overview of the Standards for Short-range Devices 31 4.4.3 Ultra Wideband (UWB) 32 4.4.4 Wireless LANs [5] 33 4.4.5 BlueTooth [6] 34 4.4.6 Dect 35 4.4.7 Zigbee 35 4.4.8 RFIDs 36 4.4.9 The Prognosis for Short-range Devices 36 4.5 Core Networks 37 4.6 Broadcasting 39 4.6.1 Conventional Broadcasting 39 4.6.2 Mobile Broadcasting 41 4.7 Industry Structure 42 4.8 Summary 42 4.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM 43 OFDM is Increasingly in Favour 43 A Quick Introduction to OFDM 43 Multipath: the Key Difference between OFDM and SCM 44 Equalisers may become too Complex to be Realisable 45 Problems Specific to OFDM 45 Specific Applications 45 So is OFDM the New ‘Technology of Choice’? 48 References 48 5 End User Demand 49 5.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical 49 5.2 How People React to New Concepts 49 5.3 Changing Patterns of Spending 51 5.4 What they have Today 53 5.5 What they want Now 53 5.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns 55 5.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem 56 5.8 In Summary 57 6 Technology Progress 59 6.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast 59 6.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The ‘True’ Laws 60 6.3 Key Technical Observations: The ‘Empirical’ Laws 62 6.3.1 Moore’s Law 62 6.3.2 Metcalfe’s Law 63 6.3.3 Gilder’s Law 64 6.3.4 Cooper’s Law 65 6.3.5 Edholm’s Law 67 6.3.6 Growth in Disk Size 68 6.3.7 Goodhart’s Law 70 6.3.8 Laws or Trends? 70 6.4 Technologies on the ‘Radar Screen’ 70 6.4.1 Technologies Enhancing the Efficiency of Transmission 71 Software-defined Radio 71 Smart Antennas 71 Wireless Mesh Networking 72 Interference Cancellation 73 Cognitive Radio 74 6.4.2 Technologies Lowering Cost: Backhaul 74 6.4.3 Technologies Enhancing Interaction with Terminals 76 6.4.4 Technologies Leading to ‘Artificial Intelligence’ 84 6.4.5 Compression Technologies 85 6.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthroughs 85 6.6 Implications for the Future 85 References 86 7 Major World Events 87 7.1 Introduction 87 7.2 World Events 87 7.3 Events in Related Industries 89 7.4 Summary 90 7.5 The Next Chapters 90 8 Future Military Wireless Solutions 91 Paul S. Cannon and Clive R. Harding 8.1 Introduction 91 8.2 Operational Context 92 8.3 Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications 93 8.4 New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems 94 8.4.1 Impact of Unmanned Vehicles 94 8.4.2 Impact of High-Altitude Platforms (HAPs) 95 8.4.3 Impact of Future Infantry Soldier Technology 96 8.4.4 Impact of Wireless Sensor Networks 96 8.5 Developments in Military Communications Systems 97 8.5.1 Introduction 97 8.5.2 Very Low-Frequency (VLF) Communications 97 8.5.3 High-Frequency (HF) Communications 98 8.5.4 Terrestrial VHF, UHF and SHF Tactical Communications 99 8.5.5 Satellite Communications 100 8.6 Emerging Communications Techniques 103 8.6.1 Introduction 103 8.6.2 Ad-hoc Networks 103 8.6.3 Disruption-Tolerant Networks (DTN) 103 8.6.4 Software-Defined Radio (SDR) 104 8.6.5 Environmental Modelling for Communications Management 106 8.6.6 Spectrum Management and Utilisation 107 8.6.7 Smart Antennas for Military Communications 109 8.6.8 The Push to Higher RF Frequencies and Laser Communications 109 8.6.9 Ultra Wideband (UWB) Techniques 110 8.6.10 Communications Security 110 8.7 Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance 111 8.7.1 Introduction 111 8.7.2 Beyond Silicon Technologies 111 8.7.3 Potential of Nanotechnology 111 8.7.4 Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Computing 112 8.7.5 Negative Refractive Materials and Their Applications 113 8.7.6 Low-power High-stability Reference Sources 113 8.7.7 Power Sources 113 8.8 The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications 114 8.9 Summary and Conclusions 114 Acknowledgements 115 References 115 Biographies 115 9 From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro 117 Peter Cochrane 9.1 In the Beginning 117 9.2 The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control 118 9.3 Some General Trends 120 9.4 What do People Want and Need? 122 9.5 What can People Expect /Have? 123 9.6 Likely Technology Developments 124 9.6.1 Home and Office 124 9.6.2 Manufacturing, Retail and Logistics 126 9.6.3 Logistics of Things and People 126 9.6.4 Parasitic Networks 127 9.6.5 Mobile Sensor Networks 128 9.7 Clusters of People and Things 128 9.8 Finally 129 Biography 131 10 The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future 133 Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi 10.1 Introduction 133 10.2 The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions 134 10.3 Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity 136 10.3.1 Wireless Home Networks 136 10.3.2 Military Applications 137 10.3.3 Public Safety 137 10.3.4 Private and Public Transportation 138 10.3.5 Metro-area Broadband Networks 139 10.3.6 Mining and Manufacturing 139 10.3.7 Corporate Networks 139 10.3.8 Sensor Networks and Things-to-Things Communication 140 10.4 Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity 140 10.5 Types of Ad-hoc Network 142 10.5.1 Autonomous Peer-to-Peer Networks 142 10.5.2 Hybrid Mesh Networks 143 10.6 Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks 144 10.6.1 Linking of Ad-hoc Workgroups 144 10.6.2 Extension of carrier broadband networks 144 10.6.3 Enhanced Network Performance 144 10.7 Enabling Technologies 145 10.7.1 Self-configuration and Self-organisation 145 10.7.2 Multi-hopping and Dynamic Routing of Data Packets 145 10.7.3 Smart Sensors and Devices 146 10.7.4 Location-awareness 146 10.7.5 Low-power and Energy-scavenging Technologies 146 10.7.6 End User Control over Preferences and Privacy 147 10.8 New Business and Usage Models 147 10.9 Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers 150 10.9.1 Incumbent Wireless Carriers 150 10.9.2 Cable Broadband Operators 150 10.9.3 ‘Mom and Pop’ Wisps 151 10.9.4 Greenfield Operators 151 10.9.5 Marketers 151 10.10 A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities 152 Reference 152 Biographies 153 11 Interference and Our Wireless Future 155 Dennis A. Roberson 11.1 Introduction 155 11.2 History 156 11.3 Spectrum Scarcity 157 11.4 Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration 157 11.5 Scarcity Amelioration Approaches 162 11.6 Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems 162 References 165 Biography 166 12 Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications 167 Simon Saunders 12.1 Introduction 167 12.2 The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011 169 12.2.1 Introduction 169 12.2.2 Services and Applications 170 12.2.3 Devices 172 12.2.4 Infrastructure 173 12.2.5 Air Interfaces 173 12.2.6 Spectrum 174 12.3 The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016 175 12.3.1 Introduction 175 12.3.2 Services and Applications 175 12.3.3 Devices 176 12.3.4 Infrastructure 176 12.3.5 Air Interfaces 177 12.3.6 Spectrum 178 12.4 The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026 179 12.4.1 Introduction 179 12.4.2 Services and Applications 179 12.4.3 Devices 180 12.4.4 Infrastructure 180 12.4.5 Air Interfaces 181 12.4.6 Spectrum 181 12.5 Conclusions and Summary 182 Reference 183 Biography 184 13 Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption 185 Stephen Temple CBE 13.1 Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio 185 13.2 The Law of Large Network Momentum 187 13.3 Third-generation W-CDMA Future 188 13.4 Fourth-generation Technology 190 13.5 Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM? 192 13.6 The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now 194 13.7 Convergence as a Disruptive Force 195 13.7.1 Convergence: Mobile and Broadcasting 195 13.7.2 Convergence: Internet and Telephone Services 197 13.7.3 Convergence and the ‘Battle for the Home’ 198 Broadband Heavy-user Homes 200 Broadband Light-user Homes 202 Homes with no DSL Connection 203 13.7.4 Convergence and the Evolution of Mobile Handsets 203 13.7.5 Summary Impact of Convergence as a Disruptive Force 204 13.8 The Blindside Forces of Disruption 205 13.8.1 Governments 205 13.8.2 Regulatory Loose Cannons 206 13.8.3 Disruptive Competitors 207 13.8.4 Disruptive Suppliers 207 13.8.5 Gyrating Financial Markets 208 13.8.6 Unpredictable Customers 208 13.8.7 Disruptive Technologies 209 13.8.8 The Global Perspective 209 13.8.9 Summary Vision of the ‘Blindside’ Forces 210 13.9 Conclusions 210 Biography 211 14 Assimilating the Key Factors 213 14.1 Introduction 213 14.2 Summary of the Current Position 213 14.3 Summary of End User Demand 214 14.4 Summary from Technology Advances Section 214 14.5 Summary from the Contributors 215 Paul Cannon 215 Peter Cochrane 216 Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi 216 Dennis Roberson 216 Simon Saunders 217 Stephen Temple 217 14.6 Key Factors brought out by the Contributors 218 14.6.1 Areas not Included in Previous Discussion 218 Connectivity 218 Backhaul 219 Applications 219 Technology 219 Regulation 219 14.6.2 Areas of Disagreement 219 14.7 Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement 220 14.8 Drawing these Key Factors Together 221 15 The Future Roadmap 223 15.1 Introduction 223 15.2 Predictions for 2011 223 15.3 Predictions for 2016 227 15.4 Predictions for 2021 232 15.5 Predictions for 2026 233 15.6 Key New Applications 235 15.7 Key New Technologies 236 15.8 Key Changes in Networks 237 15.9 Major Growth Areas 238 15.10 Areas we Predict Will not be Successful 238 15.11 Implications for Stakeholders 239 Manufacturers 239 Operators 239 Service Providers 240 Regulators 240 Academics and Researchers 240 15.12 Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000 241 15.13 The Future in a Page 243 15.14 … And the Elevator Pitch 244 List of Acronyms 245 Index 249

The definitive assessment of how wireless communications will evolve over the next 20 years. Predicting the future is an essential element for almost everyone involved in the wireless industry. Manufacturers predict the future when they decide on product lines to develop or research to undertake, operators when they buy licences and deploy networks, and academics when they set PhD topics. Wireless Communications: The Future provides a solid, clear and well-argued basis on which to make these predictions. Starting with a description of the current situation and a look at how previous predictions made in 2000 have fared, the book then provides the contributions of six eminent experts from across the wireless industry. Based on their input and a critical analysis of the current situation, it derives detailed forecasts for 2011 through to 2026. This leads to implications across all of the different stakeholders in the wireless industry and views on key developments. Presents clear and unambiguous predictions, not a range of scenarios from which the user has to decideIncludes chapters covering existing wireless systems which provide solid tutorial material across a wide range of wireless devicesOffers a range of views of the future from high profile contributors in various areas of the industry and from around the globe, including contributions from Vodafone and MotorolaProvides a comprehensive guide to current technologies, offering keen analysis of key drivers, end user needs and key economic and regulatory constraints This book, compiled by a renowned author with a track record of successful prediction, is an essential read for strategists working for wireless manufacturers, wireless operators and device manufacturers, regulators and professionals in the telecoms industry, as well as those studying the topic or with a general interest in the future of wireless communications.