The two most important words Harry Markowitz ever wrote are "portfolio selection." In 1952, when everyone in the stock market was looking for the next hot stock, as a doctoral candidate, he proposed to look at many, diverse stocks--a portfolio. He laid the first cornerstone of Modern Portfolio Theory and defended the idea that strategic asset growth means factoring in the risk of an investment. More than 60 years later, the father of modern finance revisits his original masterpiece, describes how his theory has developed, and proves the vitality of hisrisk-return analysis in the current global economy.Risk-Return Analysis opens the door to agroundbreaking four-book series giving readers a privileged look at the personal reflections and current strategies of a luminary in finance. This first volume is Markowitz's response to what he calls the "Great Confusion" that spread when investors lost faith in the diversification benefits of MPT during the financial crisis of 2008. It demonstrates why MPT never became ineffective during the crisis, and how you can continue to reap the rewards of managed diversification into the future. Economists and financial advisors will benefit from the potent balance of theory and hard data on mean-variance analysis aimed at improving decision-making skills. Written for the academic and the practitioner withsome math skills (mostly high school algebra), this richly illustrated guide arms you with:Concrete steps to accurately select and apply the right risk measures in a given circumstanceRare surveys of a half-century of literature covering the applicability of MPTEmpirical data showing mean and riskmeasure used to maximize return in the long termPRAISE FOR RISK-RETURN ANALYSIS"Harry Markowitz invented portfolio analysis and presented the theory in his famous 1952 article and 1959 book. Nobody has greater insight into the process than Harry. No academic or practitioner can truly claim to understand portfolio analysis unless they have read this volume." -- Martin J. Gruber, Professor Emeritus and Scholar in Residence, Stern School of Business, New York University"Surveying the vast literature inspired by [Markowitz's] own 1959 book has stimulated an outpouring of ideas. He builds on the strengths and limitations of the important papers in order to come up with a position that should silence a lot of critics." -- Jack Treynor, President, Treynor Capital Management"The authors do not overlook various criticisms of the MPT, but rather address them convincingly. This excellent book is an essential reference for academics and practitioners alike." -- Haim Levy, Miles Robinson Professor of Finance, Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel"Markowitz’s groundbreaking publications on Portfolio Selection prescribe a methodology that a rational decision-maker can follow to optimize his investment portfolio in a risky world. . . . Thischallenging new book clarifies many common misconceptions about modern portfolio theory." -- Roger C. Gibson, author of Asset Allocation and Chief Investment Officer, Gibson Capital, LLC"Contain[s] great wisdom that every economist, portfolio manager, and investor should savor page by page." -- Andrew W. Lo, Charles E. and Susan T. Harris Professor and Director, Laboratory for Financial Engineering, MIT Sloan School of Management"[Markowitz's] monumental work in the 1950s would be sufficient to qualify as a lifetime achievement for most mortals, but he keeps spouting fresh insights like lightning flashes year after year, and penetrating ever deeper into the theory, mathematics, and practice of investing." -- Martin Leibowitz, Managing Director, Global Research Strategy, Morgan Stanley"Risk–Return Analysis is a wonderful work in progress by a remarkable scholar who always has time to read what matters, who has the deepest appreciation of scientific achievement, and who has the highest aspirations for the future." -- Enterprising Investor (CFA Institute)
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Demonstrates why MPT never became ineffective during the crisis, and how you can continue to reap the rewards of managed diversification into the future. This book arms you with concrete steps to accurately select and apply the right risk measures in a given circumstance.
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Foreword xiPreface xxiAcknowledgments xxviiOutline of Plans for Volumes II, III, and IV xxix1. The Expected Utility Maxim 1Introduction 1Defi nitions 5Uniqueness 10Characteristics of Expected Utility Maximization 12RDMs Versus HDMs 14Allais’s Paradox 17Weber’s Law and the Allais Paradox 21The Axioms 24Axiom I 25Axiom II 26Axioms III and III 28Bounded Versus Unbounded Utility of Returns 31Postscript 342. Mean-Variance Approximations to Expected Utility 37Introduction 37Why Not Just Maximize Expected Utility? 41Utility of Return Versus Utility of Wealth 44Loistl’s Erroneous Analysis 47Levy and Markowitz (1979) 48Highly Risk-Averse Investors 53Highly Risk-Averse Investors and a Risk-Free Asset 56Portfolios of Call Options 58Ederington’s Quadratic and Gaussian Approximations to Expected Utility 63Other Pioneers 69Conclusion 723. Mean-Variance Approximations to the Geometric Mean 73Introduction 73Why Inputs to a Mean-Variance Analysis Must Be Arithmetic Means 78Six Mean-Variance Approximations to g 80Observed Approximation Errors for Asset Classes 84Relationships Among Approximation Methods 90Twentieth-Century Real Equity Returns 97Choice of Approximation 111Recap 117Technical Note: Selecting a Weighted Average of Approximations 1184. Alternative Measures of Risk 123Introduction 123The Asset-Class Database 124Comparisons 127The DMS Database 137Caveat and Conclusion 1475. The Likelihood of Various Return Distributions (With Anthony Tessitore, Ansel Tessitore,and Nilufer Usmen) 149Introduction 149Bayes Factors 153Transformed Variables 156Compound Hypotheses 159The Pearson Family 161The DMS Database 169Practically Normal Distributions 175Illustrative Histograms 179Near LH-Maximizing Distributions for the Ensemble 182Transformed Country Distributions 186Observations 190Recommendation 192Notes 195References 209Index 217
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Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9780071817936
Publisert
2013-10-16
Utgiver
Vendor
McGraw-Hill Professional
Vekt
532 gr
Høyde
236 mm
Bredde
165 mm
Dybde
23 mm
Aldersnivå
P, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
Antall sider
272

Biographical note

Harry M. Markowitz is president of Harry Markowitz Co. in San Diego. In 1990, he was jointly awarded the Nobel Prize for economics with Merton Miller and William Sharpe.