Thus, tools are presented for the explicit treatment of uncertainties using "synthetic" information composed of available "hard" data from historical observations, the results of possible experiments, and scientific facts, as well as "soft" data from experts' opinions, and scenarios.
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Support for addressing the on-going global changes needs solutions for new scientific problems which in turn require new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of irreducible uncertainties, including extreme events of high multidimensional consequences, e.g., the climate change. The dilemma is concerned with enormous costs versus massive uncertainties of extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments, and learning by doing may be expensive, dangerous, or impossible. In addition, the available historical observations are often contaminated by past actions, and policies. Thus, tools are presented for the explicit treatment of uncertainties using "synthetic" information composed of available "hard" data from historical observations, the results of possible experiments, and scientific facts, as well as "soft" data from experts' opinions, and scenarios.

 

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Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras
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Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9783642037344
Publisert
2009-12-07
Utgiver
Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. KG
Høyde
235 mm
Bredde
155 mm
Aldersnivå
Research, P, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Heftet
Antall sider
16