Introduction 1 The Next Set of Breakthroughs 2 The Information Revolution 2 Medical Technologies 2 Genetics 2 Alternative Energy 3 Artificial Intelligence 3 Material Sciences and Nanotechnology 3 What This Book Is About 3 Part I: Technology and Strategy 4 Part II: Managing Danger 5 Part III: The Environment of Technology 5 Part IV: Coping with Technological Disruptions 6 Endnotes 8 PART I: TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY 9 Chapter 1: Technological Disruptions 11 The Powers of the Mind 11 Information Technology (IT) 12 Medical Technologies 13 Genetics 15 Alternative Energy 16 Artificial Intelligence, Material Sciences, and Nanotechnology 16 The Challenge of Commercialization 18 Endnotes 18 Chapter 2: Commercialization's Obstacles 19 Fumbling the Future at Xerox: IT 19 Medical Technology: Cochlear Implants 20 Basic Research in Diverse Labs 21 Breakthroughs in Other Disciplines 21 A Highly Committed Champion 22 Multiple Developmental Paths 22 Private Firms' Failure to Cooperate 22 Professional Endorsement 22 FDA Approval 23 Lack of Enthusiasm from the User Community 23 High Costs 23 Safety and Efficacy Concerns 23 Auxiliary Services 24 Withdrawal 24 New Entrants 24 Genetics: Agricultural Productivity 24 Sustainability as a Corporate Goal 25 Opposition 25 Rapid U.S. Market Penetration 25 More Promised Progress 26 Government Restrictions 26 Environmentalists' Criticism 26 Competition from DuPont 27 Alternative Energy: The Electric Car 27 Less Pollution and Foreign Oil 28 Range and Fossil Fuels 28 1990s' Failure 29 Hybrid Successes 29 Weak Plug-In Sales 29 Battery Subsidies from the U.S. Government 29 A Solution from Tesla and Panasonic 30 Not Yet Affordable 30 A New Business Model 31 The Slow and Arduous Path to Commercialization 31 Why Xerox Missed Its Opportunity: Game Theory 32 Setbacks at Many Points 33 Uncertain Government Support 34 Project Management Insufficient to Overcome These Problems 35 The Inclination to Undertake Safe Projects 36 Technologies Push and Markets Pull 36 Determination, Will, and Persistence 37 Endnotes 37 Chapter 3: Hedging the Uncertainty 39 Trends 40 Expert Opinion 40 Historical Analogies 41 Industry Analysis 42 Scenarios 42 Surprises 43 Taking Notice of the Periphery 43 Romances, Tragedies, and Comedies 44 The Narrative Details 44 Applying Scenario Logic to Technology Commercialization 45 Strategic Adjustments 46 Hedging 47 Gamble on the Most Probable Outcome 47 Take the Robust Route 48 Delay Until Further Clarity Emerges 49 Commit with Fallbacks 49 Shape the Future 50 Conclusion 50 Endnotes 50 PART II: MANAGING DANGER 53 Chapter 4: Dealing with Danger 55 Bhopal: What Went Wrong 55 Highly Toxic Chemicals 55 Weak Infrastructure 56 An Uncontrolled Explosion 56 Nonfunctioning Backups 57 Trapped Victims 57 Organizational Shortcomings 57 Warnings Ignored 58 The Price of the Accident 58 The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: What Went Wrong 59 Beyond Petroleum 59 Tar Sands Processing 59 Explosion in Texas City and Oil Leaks in Alaska 59 The Spill 60 The Many Mistakes 60 Inherently Dangerous Technologies 61 Dilemmas in Managing Dangerous Technologies 63 Individual Cognitive Limits 64 Experts' Cognitive Limits 64 Organizations' Cognitive Limits 64 How Much a Life Is Worth 65 Inferences from Animal Studies to Humans 65 Conclusion 66 Endnotes 66 Chapter 5: Laws of Liability 69 Vioxx: What Went Wrong? 69 Merck's Positive Reputation 70 The Search for a Blockbuster Drug Without Gastrointestinal Complications 70 Early Warnings 70 Failure to Communicate 71 The FDA's Required Warning 71 More Criticism 72 Voluntary Recall 72 Thousands of Suits 72 Criminal Charges 73 Johnson & Johnson's Hip Replacement: What Went Wrong? 73 A Paragon of Social Responsibility 74 The Acquisition of DePuy 74 All-Metal Replacements 74 Design Problems 75 FDA Investigations 75 A Voluntary Recall 75 Suits Against the Company 76 The Reimbursement Plan 76 The Laws of Liability 77 Evolution of the Law 77 Classic Tort Law 78 Assumption of Risk 78 Punitive Action 78 Strict Liability 79 The Justification for Strict Liability 79 Further Movement from a Fault-Based System 80 Refinements of the Laws of Liability 81 Conclusion 81 Endnotes 82 PART III: THE ENVIRONMENT OF TECHNOLOGY 85 Chapter 6: Old, Young, and Global Security 87 The Rise of the Elderly 87 Declining Fertility 88 Economic Impacts 90 Technology to Assist the Elderly 91 A Cure for Alzheimer's 91 Reversing Aging 93 Among the Young: Hope and Disillusion 96 Meaningful Work 97 What Next 100 Diminishing Youth Bulges 102 Technology to Combat Terror 106 Conclusion 108 Endnotes 108 Chapter 7: Rich, Poor, and Global Inequality 111 Trends 111 Within Country Gaps 112 Between-Country Gaps 112 The U.S. Wealth Gap 113 The Rise of Neoliberalism 115 Technology at the Top of the Pyramid 117 Sophisticated Models 117 What Hedge Funds Do 118 Only for the Already Wealthy 119 Renaissance Technologies 120 Technology at the Bottom of the Pyramid 121 Telecommunications 122 Potable Water 123 Health Services 124 Nutrition and Crop Protection 124 Energy 125 Critiques 125 Conclusion 126 Endnotes 127 Chapter 8: Abundance, Scarcity, and Global Sustainability 129 Fossil Fuels 130 Oil Price Declines 130 Hydraulic Fracking 132 Tar Sands 133 Offshore Recovery 134 Cleaner Energy 135 Building Energy 136 Industrial and Commercial 138 Solar 138 Wind 140 Energy Storage 142 Biofuels 143 Conclusion 145 Endnotes 145 PART IV: COPING WITH TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTIONS 147 Chapter 9: Missing the Boat on Mobile Technology: Intel and AMD 149 The Mobile Revolution 149 The Battles Between Intel and AMD 152 Memory 152 Microprocessors 153 The Sub-Zero Segment 153 Speed and Continued Price Wars 154 Branching Out 155 The Hammer 156 Global Antitrust 157 Graphics and Other Products 157 Divesting Manufacturing 158 Searching for New Markets 158 ARM Architecture 159 Mobile 159 Gaming 159 Mounting Mobile Losses 160 New Leadership at AMD 160 Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) 162 The Internet of Things (IOT) 162 Smart Glasses and Augmented Reality 163 Risks Ahead 164 Conclusion 164 Glossary of Computer Terminology 165 Endnotes 165 Chapter 10: From Mass Customizing to Mass Commodity: Dell and Acer 167 Financial Woes 168 An Industry in Decline 170 The Fat Years: Dell's Ascent 170 A Competency in Mass Customization 171 Gateway Abandons the Direct Model 173 The Lean Years: Michael Dell's Resignation 174 Acer's Acquisition of Gateway 176 Dell's Plans for a Recovery 177 The Enterprise Market 181 Becoming a Private Company 182 Acer's Efforts at Revitalization 183 Notebooks 183 Smartphones 183 Free Cloud 185 IOT 185 Conclusion 185 Endnotes 186 Chapter 11: Finding Growth and Profitability in Bookselling: Barnes & Noble and Amazon 189 Barnes & Noble and the Superstore 189 Amazon and Internet Commerce 191 Amazon's Reinvention 192 Barnes & Noble's Focus on Books 194 Sinking Profits 195 Amazon's Fluid Identity 195 Profiting from the Cloud 197 Barnes & Noble's Decision to Split Up 198 Spinning Off the Nook 198 Spinning Off the College Division 199 How Attractive Was Bookselling? 200 Sales Trends 200 Reading Habits 201 Leisure Time Choices 201 Digital Devices 202 The Publishers 202 Wholesale 203 The Big Five 203 The Spat with Amazon 204 Conclusion 205 Endnotes 205 Chapter 12: Escaping the Middle: Best Buy and Charles Schwab 209 The Evolution of Best Buy 210 Concept One: 1983-1989 211 Concept Two: 1990-2001 211 Concept Three: 2002-2007 212 The Aftermath of the Financial Meltdown 214 The Evolution of Charles Schwab 214 Discounting 214 High Net Worth Clients 215 A Category of One 215 The Affluent of the Future 216 Following Customers 216 New Challenges 217 Competition in Consumer Electronics 217 Online 217 Showrooming 218 Competition Among Discount Brokers 218 Innovation Dilemmas 219 Major Industry Players 219 Best Buy's Comeback Plans 220 Transforming E-Commerce 220 Cost Savings and Product Innovation 221 Enhancing the Internet Platform: Charles Schwab 222 Ranking the Platforms 223 The Robo-Advisor 223 Conclusion 224 Endnotes 225 Chapter 13: Content for a New Age: Disney and Time Warner 229 Vertical Integration: Disney 230 Vertical Integration: Time Warner 231 Mergers, Acquisitions, and Divestitures 232 The Disney-Capital Cities Merger 235 ABC 236 The Iger Era 237 The AOL-Time Warner Merger 237 Trying to Revive AOL 238 Slimming Down 239 HBO's Edginess and Success 240 Disney's Dominance 241 Cable Channels 241 The Studios 242 Internet Initiatives and Cable's Abandonment 243 Losing Young People 244 Conclusion 245 Endnotes 246 Final Thoughts 249 The Future of Technology Management and the Business Environment: Lessons on Innovation, Disruption, and Strategy Execution 249 Index 251

Today's organizations must become far more effective in crafting strategy that reflects the relentless external technological, economic, political, and business pressures they face. In this guide, leading technology strategy educator Alfred A. Marcus offers powerful tools for anticipating change and managing the threats and opportunities it poses. Using incisive case studies, Marcus shows how to describe potential events leading from the present to the future, envision alternative positive and negative futures, and assess the moves you can make to achieve the future you want. He offers practical guidance for analyzing current strategy, challenges, customer and supplier bases, current and potential competitors, and possible short- and long-term substitutes for your offerings. Marcus helps you identify the events that can quickly destroy a flourishing business model or change a fast-growing company into one that's just "treading water." You'll learn how to incorporate major technological shifts, global security, economics, and sustainability in your analyses, reducing the risk of unexpected external shocks to the maximum extent possible. Next, Marcus demonstrates how to systematically assess potential responses related to product positioning, M&A, divesting, partnering, globalizing, and innovation. Finally, since businesses often ignore even the most compelling predictions, he addresses the challenge of getting your organization to take your analysis seriously - so you can act in time to shape the future you desire.