<p>"Unless you are a pacifist, then deep down you accept that there may be wars worth fighting. But would you morally justify waging a war you cannot, in all likelihood, win? How do you even measure the likelihood of success or defeat? The editors of this volume posed these questions to experts in the field of just war theory. Their responses offer powerful insights into how the likelihood of success impacts our moral judgements, the advantages and pitfalls of being guided by such moral machinations, and alternative ways of judging the relationship between winning and whether it is just to take to the battlefield. A timely intervertion in just war scholarship..."</p><p><b><i> Daniel R. Brunstetter</i>, </b><i>Professor, University of California, Irvine, USA</i></p><p>"Governments frequently go to war and scholars debate their actions without paying much attention to what it means to ‘succeed’ in a given conflict, or how likely that outcome might be. Yet, as currently demonstrated in Gaza, Sudan, Ukraine, and beyond, ideas about ‘success’ entail historic consequences for ethical norms, human suffering, and global security. Boasting a range of intellectual approaches, this volume works through the deontological difficulties of the just war tradition to deliberate rigorously and provocatively on its ‘likelihood of success’ criterion. From humanitarian intervention to atomic bargaining, cyberattacks to technological panaceas, and strategic warfighting to operational battle requirements, Joustra and Patterson’s collection initiates important discussions about defining and assessing an idea – ‘success’ – that proves evocative and elusive in the messy, morally murky, and motivationally mixed times in which wars unfold."</p><p><i><b>Andrew Hom, </b>University of Edinburgh, UK</i></p><p>'This is an outstanding and much-needed book. As a teacher of the just war tradition, I have struggled for many years to understand the meaning of and justifications for the likelihood of success principle. The essays in this volume clearly identify the problems with the principle and offer insightful solutions. While some of the authors call for a rejection of the principle and others for its revision, collectively they clarify the questions that we all should be asking about what it might mean for war to be successful--and just--in the twenty-first century. This timely book reveals not only that the just war tradition is alive and well in the world of academic scholarship, but also that just war thinking is of immense practical importance today.'</p><p><i><b> Adam Pelser</b>, Professor of Philosophy, U.S. Air Force Academy</i></p><p>‘Drawing on an impressive breadth of talent, this collection of essays asks fundamental questions about the enduring utility of ‘likelihood of success’ as a criterion of just war thought. Contributors tackle the difficulty of defining and identifying success in war (both in conventional theatres and those such as humanitarian intervention or cyber warfare), the inherent unpredictability of military campaigns, and the concern that prioritising likelihood of success ultimately privileges powerful actors and delegitimises weaker ones. Taken as a whole, this timely collection makes a powerful case that theorists and practitioners need to reconsider how the likelihood of success principle should be integrated into twenty-first-century just war doctrine and military operations.’</p><p><i><b>Rory Cox</b>, Professorof History, University of St Andrews, UK</i></p>

This book analyses the concept of likelihood of success in just war thinking and argues that if the concept should be retained, it must be reconsidered within the overall whole of the tradition of just war.

The concept of likelihood of success has stood out as particularly troublesome to thinkers and practitioners in the just war tradition. The idea, while related to the other categories of just war such as proportionality and military necessity, can at times be confused with being an absolute rather than a co-belligerent criterion within the broader just war canon. With such an abstraction, justice can be collapsed into a kind of pragmatic calculation, favouring the powerful, and virtually invalidating insurrection, rebellion, or resistance. This volume brings together scholars and experts from across the tradition to reconsider and reconceptualize likelihood of success. It analyses this concept not only in light of the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, but also in historical cases such as Thermopylae or the Russo-Finnish Winter War. It also examines how we categorize and calculate likelihood of success and also what, after all, we mean by ‘success’. Further, the volume considers how close or far from the target we should get, or expect to get, before claiming that a war is ‘unjust’, or immoral, and raises the issue of the destructiveness caused by defenders themselves.

This book will be of interest to students of just war theory, military ethics, statecraft, and international relations generally.

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This book analyses the concept of likelihood of success in just war thinking and argues that if the concept is to be retained, it must be reconsidered within the overall whole of the tradition of just war.

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1. Introduction: Making Sense of “Likelihood of Success” in the Just War Tradition Part I: Likelihood of Success: Concept and Controversy 2. Worse Things Than Losing: Underdogs Defining Likelihood of Success 3. Likelihood of Success, the Science of War, and the False Security of a Technical Principle 4. Just War and Likelihood of Success: Wars of Necessity vs. Wars of Choice 5. What Should We Hope For? In Search of Reasonable Definitions of Success 6. From Likelihood of Success to Likely Consequences 7. Mixed Motives and the Likelihood of Success 8. A Reasonable Chance of Success and the (Low) Probability of Meeting All Just War Theory Precepts 9. Humanitarianism & Tranquilitas Ordinas in Jus Post Bellum Part II: Likelihood of Success: Applications and Cases 10. When You Can’t Afford to Miss: Likelihood of Success and Discrimination in Cyberwarfare 11. Atomic Signaling: Exploring Likelihood of Success and Military Necessity through the Bargaining Model of War 12. Success in Battle—Failure in War 13. Just War Moral Reasoning, Golden-Rule Ethics, and the Politics of Rescue: Reassessing “Reasonable Chance of Success” in the Light of Geopolitical Evil, 14. Strategic Special Operations and the Likelihood of Success 15. Conclusion: David and Goliath

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Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9781041098751
Publisert
2025-11-25
Utgiver
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Høyde
234 mm
Bredde
156 mm
Aldersnivå
U, P, 05, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Innbundet
Antall sider
248

Biografisk notat

Eric Patterson (PhD, University of California, Santa-Barbara) is President & CEO of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, Scholar-at-Large and the former dean of the School of Government at Regent University, USA, and a research fellow and former faculty member at Georgetown University’ Berkley Center for Religion, Peace & World Affairs. He is the author or editor of twenty-two books, including Just American Wars: Ethical Dilemmas in U.S. Military History (2019).

Robert J. Joustra (PhD, University of Bath) is professor of politics & international studies at Redeemer University, Canada. He is a Senior Editor at The Review of Faith & International Affairs, and author of many books on religion and politics, including most recently Power Politics & Moral Order – Three Generations of Christian Realism (2022).