Chapter 1: Introduction Why Intelligence Fails What the Book Is About Summary Notes Chapter 2: Intelligence in Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict Nature of Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict Tools of Conflict The Conflict Spectrum The Function of Intelligence Summary Notes Part I: The Analysis Process Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target Summary Notes Chapter 4: Defining the Intelligence Issue Statement of the Issue The Issue Definition Product Issue Decomposition Complex Issue Decomposition Structured Analytic Methodologies for Issue Definition Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Issue Summary Notes Chapter 5: Conceptual Frameworks for Intelligence Analysis Analytic Perspectives - PMESII Modeling the Intelligence Target Modeling Using PMESII Using Models in Analysis Summary Notes Chapter 6: Overview of Models in Intelligence Creating a Conceptual Model Textual Models Mathematical Models Visual Models Advanced Target Models Target Model Combinations Alternative and Competitive Target Models Summary Notes Chapter 7: Creating the Model Existing Intelligence Sources of New Raw Intelligence Evaluating Evidence Combining Evidence Structured Augmentation A Note About the Role of Information Technology Summary Notes Chapter 8: Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial Deception Defense against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Higher Level Denial and Deception Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Analytic Tradecraft in a World of Denial and Deception Summary Notes Chapter 9: Systems Modeling and Analysis Analyzing an Existing System: The Mujahedeen Insurgency Analyzing a Developmental System: Methodology Performance Schedule Risk Cost Operations Research Summary Notes Chapter 10: Network Modeling and Analysis Link Models Network Models Some Network Types Modeling the Network Analyzing the Network Summary Notes Chapter 11: Geospatial and Temporal Modeling and Analysis Static Geospatial Models Temporal Models Dynamic Geospatial Models Summary Notes Part II: The Estimative Process Chapter 12: Predictive Analysis Introduction to Predictive Analysis Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Estimative Approach Summary Notes Chapter 13: Estimative Forces Inertia Countervailing Forces Contamination Synergy Feedback Unintended Consequences Summary Notes Chapter 14: Scenarios Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Indicators and the Role of Intelligence A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020 Summary Notes Chapter 15: Simulation Modeling Types of Simulations Creating and Running a Simulation Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis Decision Modeling and Simulation Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis Summary Notes Part III: Systems and Network Views of Analysis Chapter 16: A Systems View: Function Intelligence Research Current Intelligence Indications and Warning What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? Limits and Boundaries The Pathology of Failures Summary Notes Chapter 17: A Systems View: Process Identify the Customer Planning the Analysis Project Managing Team Efforts Preparing the Analytic Product Reviewing the Analytic Product Evaluating the Analytic Product Summary Notes Chapter 18: A Systems View: Structure Topical or Regional Structure? The Analyst Analytic Teams Summary Notes Chapter 19: A Network View: The Customer Overview of Customers Analyst-Customer Interaction Summary Notes Chapter 20: A Network View: The Collector The U.S. Collection Management Problem Interrelating the Issue and Target Model Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps Executing Collection Strategies Summary Notes