Produktdetaljer
Biografisk notat
TERRY WILLIAMS is Professor and Head of the Management Science Department at Strathclyde University. After studying at Oxford and Birmingham he lectured at Strathclyde University in Operational Research before joining Engineering Consultants YARD (now BAe) where he worked for 9 years developing Project Risk Management and as Risk Manager for major projects. He re-joined Strathclyde University in 1992 and continues research and consultancy modelling on major projects, particularly as one of a team supporting multi-million dollar post-project Delay and Disruption claims in Europe and North America.Dr Williams is Editor of the Journal of the Operational Research Society. He is a frequent conference speaker, and has published widely in many academic and professional journals and books. He is MAPM, PhD and CMath.
“…provides a lot of useful information about model building in general.” (<i>Project Net</i>, April 2004) <p>"...an essential resource for those required to model how a project may behave under certain circumstances..." (<i>Jnl of the Operation Research Society</i>, Vol 54(12), 2004)</p> <p>"...well conceived, well written, and well produced..." (<i>Chemistry World</i>, 1 Feb 2004)</p>
- This is the only project management book that deals with Project Modelling.
- Features case studies throughout.
- Places the various approaches to Project Modelling within a coherent framework, and gives an objective overview.
1 This Book 1
Introduction to the book and the author 1
Why is there a need for this book? 3
The structure of this book 7
What do I need to know before I read this book? 8
Conclusion 11
2 Projects 13
What is a project? 13
What are project objectives? 15
Basic project management techniques 18
Projects referred to in this book 23
Conclusion 29
3 Modelling 31
What is a model? 31
Why do we model? 35
Modelling in practice 40
Validation 44
Conclusion 47
4 What is a Complex Project? 49
Introduction 49
What is complexity? Structural complexity 50
What is complexity? Uncertainty 55
What is complexity? Summary 58
Increasing complexity 59
Tools and techniques—and the way ahead 62
5 Discrete Effects and Uncertainty 65
Introduction 65
Uncertainty and risk in projects 66
Cost risk: additive calculations 78
Time risk: effects in a network 89
Analysing time risk: simulation 96
Criticality and cruciality 104
The three criteria and beyond 115
Conclusion 118
6 Discrete Effects: Collecting Data 119
Introduction 119
Collecting subjective data: identification 121
Collecting subjective data: general principles of quantification 123
Collecting subjective data: simple activity-duration models 126
Effect of targets 131
Conclusion 136
7 The Soft Effects 137
Introduction 137
Some key project characteristics 139
Client behaviour and external effects on the project 140
Management decisions 146
Project staffing 149
Subjective effects within the project 151
Summary and looking forward 154
8 Systemic Effects 155
The effects 155
A brief introduction to cause mapping 157
Qualitative modelling: simple compounding 158
Qualitative modelling: loops 161
Quantitative modelling 163
9 System Dynamics Modelling 167
Introduction to system dynamics 167
Using system dynamics with mapping 171
Elements of models 175
Production elements 176
Other elements 188
Managerial actions 189
How effects compound 193
Validation 195
Conclusion 196
10 Hybrid Methods: The Way Forward? 199
Introduction 199
Adapting standard models using lessons learned from SD 200
Using conventional tools to generate SD models 205
Using SD and conventional models to inform each other 206
Extending SD: discrete events and stochastic SD 208
The need for intelligence 210
Conclusion 212
11 The Role of the Modeller 215
Introduction 215
Project management 215
What makes a good modeller? 217
Stages of project modelling 219
Chapter summary 230
12 Conclusion 233
Appendix: Extension of time claims 235
References 249
Index 265
Because the behaviour of complex projects is often puzzling, or counter-intuitive, we need models. This book presents a structured toolkit of techniques, developed gradually from the simple to the more complex, and provides examples to show where, when and why the techniques should be used. It looks at what causes project complexity, describes various aspects of project behaviour and develops modelling tools.
Starting with more traditional techniques modelling individual effects on projects, giving a full treatment (including some novel network concepts) the book enables readers to build breakdown - and network - type models. It also considers some of the more difficult aspects of modelling by moving into the "softer", more subjective, effects and then looking at systemic models of the effects as they come together. Finally, it looks at various methods of developing hybrid tools, to utilise the benefits of combinations of techniques.
Based on a wealth of practical experience and bringing together a range of tried and tested techniques, this book explains where the use of modelling can help estimate, monitor, control and analyse projects and thus lead to successful implementation.
Providing a broad toolkit, with an integrated development through all the tools, this book will show analysts and workers in project management how to:
- analyse the risk in a project
- quantify the effect of individual impacts upon a project (e.g. client changes)
- understand the progress of a project
- understand the behaviour of a project and the effect of management actions on the behaviour
- carry out a project post-mortem and prepare a post-project claim
Produktdetaljer
Biografisk notat
TERRY WILLIAMS is Professor and Head of the Management Science Department at Strathclyde University. After studying at Oxford and Birmingham he lectured at Strathclyde University in Operational Research before joining Engineering Consultants YARD (now BAe) where he worked for 9 years developing Project Risk Management and as Risk Manager for major projects. He re-joined Strathclyde University in 1992 and continues research and consultancy modelling on major projects, particularly as one of a team supporting multi-million dollar post-project Delay and Disruption claims in Europe and North America.Dr Williams is Editor of the Journal of the Operational Research Society. He is a frequent conference speaker, and has published widely in many academic and professional journals and books. He is MAPM, PhD and CMath.