Foreword by Mario Greco xiii Introduction xix Prologue xxvii Part One: Understanding Decisions Under Uncertainty Chapter 1: Making Great Predictions 3 Chapter 2: Case 1: Making People Decisions 19 Chapter 3: Developing Options to Approximate the Right Decision 29 Part Two: Making Decisions Under Uncertainty Chapter 4: Case 2: Making Strategic Decisions 57 Chapter 5: Identifying Assumptions and Testing Them 69 Chapter 6: Case 3: Making Decisions About Company Growth 95 Chapter 7: Developing Better Options 107 Part Three: Managing the Tensions Created by Decisions Under Uncertainty Chapter 8: Case 4: Implementing Decisions 129 Chapter 9: Managing Change 135 Part Four: Becoming Super Deciders Chapter 10: Case 5: Making Work- Life Balance Decisions 157 Chapter 11: Becoming Better at Making Decisions 165 Chapter 12: Case 6: Making “Tough” Decisions 185 Chapter 13: Preparing to Be Wrong 195 Part Five: Conclusions Chapter 14: Epilogue 211 Chapter 15: Conclusions 215 Notes 225 Appendixes 227 References 249 About the Authors 267 Index 271

PRAISE FOR SUPER DECIDERS “The decisions we make today are more complex and interconnected than ever before. Super Deciders rigorously cuts through the noise with tools that help leaders of all kinds reach more informed and impactful decisions.” —GREG CASE, Chief Executive Officer of Aon “Companies in dynamic, uncertain times should not rely on ‘either-or’ but ‘and’ decisions that lead to agile strategies. The current business needs to be constantly improved and optimized while agile strategies create further options for the future.” —JOERG REINHARDT, Chairman of Novartis “Super Deciders brings discipline into the decision process that leaders face daily as they navigate their way to the strategic vision for their organization. Every decision needs to be influenced by the clarity of the vision for stakeholder value creation! How to bring those disciplines into the daily leadership cadence is critical for every leader and this book offers new insights into this critical leadership skill.” —ROBERT CHAPMAN, Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer of Barry-Wehmiller and author of The Wall Street Journal bestseller Everybody Matters: The Extraordinary Power of Caring for Your People Like Family “Super Deciders masterfully weaves together the science of decision-making with the magic of storytelling. A must-read for anyone seeking clarity in turbulent times.” —ROLF DOBELLI, Founder of WORLD.MINDS and author of the million-copy bestseller The Art of Thinking Clearly “With a scientific journey through recent findings on how our brain understands problems and on how it makes decisions, Super Deciders develops a structured approach to decision-making that helps leaders navigate today’s volatile, unpredictable, and ever-changing markets. Insightful concepts delivered with remarkable simplicity.” —SABINE KELLER-BUSSE, President, UBS Switzerland “This timely book is an essential read for every decision-maker in organizations. The book lays out a systematic approach to problem-solving by bringing insights from research in neuroscience, psychology, and management to augment our experiences and intuitions with a more scientific approach to decision-making. The Super Deciders model provides actionable insights to decision-makers to know better what drives them—their goals, preferences, and values—and how they can make better decisions to build more adaptive organizations in an increasingly complex and uncertain world.” —VIBHA GABA, The Berghmans Lhoist Chaired Professor of Entrepreneurial Leadership, INSEAD