A comprehensive description of modelling in global and national economies, this book introduces a modelling approach that shows how economies work and how to generate forecasts. Illustrated with various global and national examples, including a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy.

1. Introduction ; 2. Macroeconometric Modelling: Alternative Approaches ; 3. National and Global Structural Macroeconometric Modelling ; 4. An Economic Theory of the Long Run ; 5. An Economic Theory of the Short Run ; 6. Econometric Methods: A Review ; 7. Probability Forecasting: Concepts and Analysis ; 8. The UK Macroeconomy ; 9. A Long-Run Structural Model of the UK ; 10. Impulse Response and Trend/ Cycle Properties of the UK Model ; 11. Probability Event Forecasting with the UK Model ; 12. Global Modelling and Other Applications ; 13. Concluding Remarks ; Appendix A: Derivation of the Interest Rate Rule ; Appendix B: Invariance Properties of the Impulse Responses with respect to Monetary Policy Shocks ; Appendix C: Data for the UK Model ; Appendix D: Gauss Programs and Result Files

Introduces the long-run structural approach to macroeconometric modelling in the context of global and national economies Provides a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy Written from a real world perspective to ensure the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts

Anthony Garratt previously worked at the London Business School (1989-1994), the Bank of England (1994-1996), and Trinity College and the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Cambridge (1996-2002). Prior to moving to Birkbeck he was Senior Lecturer at the University of Leicester. Kevin Lee studied economics and statistics at the Universities of Sheffield and Bristol and received his PhD from the London School of Economics. Prior joining the University of Nottingham, he was a Fellow of Queens' College, and a Senior Research Officer of the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Cambridge. He was Head of the Department of Economics at Leicester (1999-2002) and Dean of the University's Graduate School. He is also an Honorary Research Associate at the University of Cambridge and Associate Editor of Applied Economics. M Hashem Pesaran has been head of the Economic Research Department at the Central Bank of Iran, the Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Education, Iran, Professor of Economics at UCLA, and a Vice President at the Tudor Investment Corporation. Dr. Pesaran is founding editor of the Journal of Applied Econometrics and is Honorary President of Cambridge Econometrics. He has held visiting positions at Harvard University, UCLA, University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Southern California. He is author of several books and edited collections, and is a co-developer of the econometric software package Microfit, published by OUP. Yongcheol Shin previously held positions at the University of Edinburgh and at the University of Cambridge. He has over 20 journal publications in the areas of econometrics, empirical finance, and macroeconomics

Introduces the long-run structural approach to macroeconometric modelling in the context of global and national economies Provides a step-by-step description of the development and use of a model of the UK economy Written from a real world perspective to ensure the techniques illustrated can be replicated or applied in new contexts