North Korea’s economic and security policies imperil both itself and
its neighbours. The economy has been contracting for almost a decade,
and the regime appears unwilling or unable to arrest the decline.
Instead, Pyongyang has resorted to begging for international aid. This
approach alone cannot work: fundamental reform is needed; without it,
the regime cannot survive. In the meantime, the North’s problems
will be destabilising for the region. Pyongyang has secured short-term
international humanitarian assistance, but in the long term the South
is its best hope for investment and economic help. Despite
Pyongyang’s defensive approach to the South, limited commercial
arrangements are in place, and may moderate the North’s policies and
help to ease the unpredictable consequences of Pyongyang’s collapse.
Pyongyang has tried to improve relations with the US in a bid to ease
economic sanctions and attract investment. However, the nuclear deal
reached with the US in October 1994 – under which the North agreed
to give up its ambiguous nuclear programme – is in difficulties.In
this paper, David Reese argues that, despite these problems, the
North’s neighbours must persevere with engagement policies. At the
same time, South Korea and the US must maintain their security posture
on the Peninsula.South Korean President Kim Dae Jung’s attempts to
establish commercial links with the North need time and patience, and
should not be derailed by relatively minor incidents. Both Seoul and
Washington must ensure that they coordinate their policies to prevent
the North from playing one off against the other. Selectively easing
sanctions on a case-by-case basis could allow the North to earn
desperately needed hard currency. Although it is difficult for
Washington and Seoul to maintain political support for engagement,
both should make further efforts to draw the North into making
significant policy changes.The US and South Korea should ensure that
they involve the interested regional parties in efforts to draw the
North into the international community. China has a key role to play
in developments on the Peninsula. Both Seoul and Washington should
therefore ensure that they work closely with Beijing. While historical
sensitivities make it difficult for Japan to play a leading role,
Tokyo would be central to the North’s economic recovery, and must
not be marginalised. Russia also has a contribution to make to the
broader security guarantees which could develop from accommodation
between North and South.Ultimately, the course of events on the
Peninsula will depend primarily on the North. Pyongyang shows little
sign of being prepared to engage constructively with the US and South
Korea. As its economy deteriorates, its options will narrow further.
Until domestic forces in North Korea shift, the US and its allies
should expect a protracted phase of desultory and sometimes
destabilising diplomatic manoeuvres by Pyongyang.
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Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9781136059568
Publisert
2020
Utgave
1. utgave
Utgiver
Taylor & Francis
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Digital bok
Forfatter