Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.
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Inflation targeting has moved the quality of econometric methodology and practice into the limelight of economic policy debate. This book describes how the discipline has adapted to changing demands by adopting insights from economic theory and by taking advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics.
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1. Introduction ; 2. Methodological issues of large scale macromodels ; 3. The Norwegian main-course model ; 4. The Phillips curve ; 5. Wage bargaining and price setting ; 6. Wage-price dynamics ; 7. The New Keynesian Phillips Curve ; 8. Money and inflation ; 9. Transmission channels and model properties ; 10. Evaluation of monetary policy rules ; 11. Forecasting using econometric models ; 12. Appendices
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"...strongly recommended to anyone interested in applied macroeconomics...definitively deserves to be one of the tools in the toolbox." Jesper Linde, Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005 The book is definitely worth not only buying but also reading...The book successfully bridges the gapbetween economic theory and relevant econometric applications. Costas Milas, International Journal of Forecasting. This book gives an excellent insight into the process of forming a high-quality, real-world macro-model then evaluating and using it. This is an important topic and makes this an important book. Clive W.J. Granger, Nobel Laureate
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Provides readers with experience in practical, real-world macroeconomic modelling. Covers the last 40 years' of international research explaining inflation in a small open economy. Comprehensive, covering inflation modelling, inflation targeting, monetary policy rules, and forecasting in one book. Emphasizes that inflation is a many-faceted phenomenon, not one that can be explained by one or two explanatory variables.
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Eilev S. Jansen, b. 1948, is a Director at the Central Bank of Norway and a Professor at Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim. He has previously been Head of the Model Building Unit (1983-1988) and Director of Research (1988-2001) at the central bank. He has been a Visiting Scholar at London School of Economics (1975-76), University of California (1993-93,2003-04), and the European Central Bank, Frankfurt (2003). Other affiliations include Department of Economics, University of Oslo (1972-77, 2001-02) and Stastitics Norway (1978-82). He has published papers in international journals and books and he is a co-author of "The econometrics of incomplete time-series/cross-section data" (with Erik Biørn). Gunnar Bårdsen is Senior Advisor at Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) and Associate Professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim. He has published papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and theoretical and applied econometrics. Øyvind Eitrheim, b. 1958, has been Director of Research at Norges Bank since 2001. He has previously been Head of the Model Building Unit (1996-2001) at the central bank. He has been a Visiting Scholar at University of California, San Diego (1990-1991). Eitrheim has been with Norges Bank since January 1984. He has published papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and theoretical and applied econometrics. Ragnar Nymoen, b. 1957, is Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo. He has published papers in macroeconomics and econometrics. In the period 1985-1996, he worked as an economists in the Research Department in Central Bank of Norway.
Les mer
Provides readers with experience in practical, real-world macroeconomic modelling. Covers the last 40 years' of international research explaining inflation in a small open economy. Comprehensive, covering inflation modelling, inflation targeting, monetary policy rules, and forecasting in one book. Emphasizes that inflation is a many-faceted phenomenon, not one that can be explained by one or two explanatory variables.
Les mer

Produktdetaljer

ISBN
9780199246502
Publisert
2005
Utgiver
Vendor
Oxford University Press
Vekt
570 gr
Høyde
233 mm
Bredde
157 mm
Dybde
20 mm
Aldersnivå
P, 06
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Heftet
Antall sider
368

Biographical note

Eilev S. Jansen, b. 1948, is a Director at the Central Bank of Norway and a Professor at Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim. He has previously been Head of the Model Building Unit (1983-1988) and Director of Research (1988-2001) at the central bank. He has been a Visiting Scholar at London School of Economics (1975-76), University of California (1993-93,2003-04), and the European Central Bank, Frankfurt (2003). Other affiliations include Department of Economics, University of Oslo (1972-77, 2001-02) and Stastitics Norway (1978-82). He has published papers in international journals and books and he is a co-author of "The econometrics of incomplete time-series/cross-section data" (with Erik Biørn). Gunnar Bårdsen is Senior Advisor at Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway) and Associate Professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology in Trondheim. He has published papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and theoretical and applied econometrics. Øyvind Eitrheim, b. 1958, has been Director of Research at Norges Bank since 2001. He has previously been Head of the Model Building Unit (1996-2001) at the central bank. He has been a Visiting Scholar at University of California, San Diego (1990-1991). Eitrheim has been with Norges Bank since January 1984. He has published papers in macroeconomics, monetary economics, and theoretical and applied econometrics. Ragnar Nymoen, b. 1957, is Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo. He has published papers in macroeconomics and econometrics. In the period 1985-1996, he worked as an economists in the Research Department in Central Bank of Norway.