This book explains the importance of using the probability that the
hypothesis is correct (PHC), an intuitive measure that anyone can
understand, as an alternative to the p-value. In order to overcome
the “reproducibility crisis” caused by the misuse of significance
tests, this book provides a detailed explanation of the mechanism
of p-hacking using significance tests, and concretely shows the
merits of PHC as an alternative to p-values. In March 2019, two
impactful papers on statistics were published. One paper, "Moving to a
World Beyond ‘p < 0.05’”, was featured in the scholarly
journal The American Statistician, overseen by the American
Statistical Association. The title of the first chapter is “Don't
Say ‘Statistically Significant’”, and it uses the imperative
form to clearly forbid the use of significance testing. Another paper,
“Retire statistical significance”, was published in the
prestigious scientific journal Nature. This commentary was endorsed
by more than 800 scientists, advocating for the statement, “We
agree, and call for the entire concept of statistical significance to
be abandoned.” Consider a study comparing the duration of hospital
stays between treatments A and B. Previously, research conclusions
were typically stated as: “There was a statistically significant
difference at the 5% level in the average duration of hospital
stays.” This phrasing is quite abstract. Instead, we present the
following conclusion as an example: (1) The average duration of
hospital stays for Group A is at least half a day shorter than for
Group B. (2) 71% of patients in Group A have shorter hospital stays
than the average for Group B. (3) Group A has an average hospital stay
that is, on average, no more than 94% of that of Group B. Then, the
probability that the expression is correct is shown. That is the PHC
curve.
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Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9789819777488
Publisert
2024
Utgiver
Springer Nature
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Digital bok
Forfatter