This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking
about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from
single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies.
“Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates
future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To
arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the
historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first
chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that
have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical
issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation”
which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated
losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a
suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown
variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for
utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and
risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of
flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible
approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many
phenomena.
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Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9783319194134
Publisert
2018
Utgiver
Vendor
Springer
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Digital bok
Forfatter