Policy- and decision-makers in government and industry constantly face
important decisions without full knowledge of all the facts. They rely
routinely on expert advice to fill critical scientific knowledge gaps.
There are unprecedented opportunities for experts to influence
decisions. Yet even the most experienced can be over-confident and
error-prone, and the hidden risk is that scientists and other experts
can over-reach, often with good intentions, placing more weight on the
evidence they provide than is warranted. This book describes how to
identify potentially risky advice, explains why group judgements
outperform individual estimates, and provides an accessible and
up-to-date guide to the science of expert judgement. Finally, and
importantly, it outlines a simple, practical framework that will help
policy- and decision-makers to ensure that the advice that they
receive is relatively reliable and accurate, thus substantially
improving the quality of information on which critical decisions are
made.
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Produktdetaljer
ISBN
9781316461464
Publisert
2015
Utgiver
Vendor
Cambridge University Press
Språk
Product language
Engelsk
Format
Product format
Digital bok
Forfatter