Next Revolution in our Credit-Driven Economy The Advent of Financial Technology
Produktdetaljer
Biografisk notat
PAUL SCHULTE runs Schulte Research, his own financial services consultancy based in Hong Kong where he is a permanent resident. His clients include sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, exchanges, and regulators. His policy experience includes work with the National Security Council at the White House in the 1980s and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance in the early 1990s. He specialized in investment strategy and research in financials with Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers, Nomura and China Construction Bank Intl. over a 20-year period.
In the academic world, he is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Emerging Markets Enterprises at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Boston, Massachusetts. He is also a Visiting Scholar in the MBA programs at both Hong Kong University and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. In addition, he has lectured at MBA programs at Tsinghua, Fudan, NYU Stern School, FGV (Rio), LBS, UCLA, Loyola Marymount, Northwestern, among others.
The Next Revolution in our Credit-Driven Economy: The Advent of Financial Technology integrates market theory and practice to help investors identify growth opportunities, and to help regulators create a sustainable economic environment. Author Paul Schulte, former economic analyst with the National Security Council, draws upon his own decade-spanning research to demonstrate how unethical banking practices provide the brute force that drives political and economic crises worldwide. By unbundling how credit markets work, this authoritative guide provides deep insight into crisis avoidance and detection, successful investment climates, and the groundwork that must be in place for policy makers to build a sound basis for economic growth. Clear, succinct case studies provide examples of policy and its effects on economic stability, giving you a stronger understanding of the network of forces that determine how loan/deposit ratios behave around the world.
Countries that lend more than they save consistently get into trouble, with catastrophic consequences for the rich and middle class as well as the politicians. This book shows how credit excesses bring about price collapse in stocks, currencies, and real estate, and provides direction for change in the context of global economics.
- Dive deep into the mechanisms underlying the credit markets
- Learn how unregulated borrowing leads to socioeconomic crises
- Examine real-world policy options through global case studies
- Discover how credit rises are best detected and avoided
An economic climate in which even the smallest hiccup can have long-lasting consequences should be the ideal impetus for a close scrutiny of global banking practices and economic policy. The Next Revolution in our Credit-Driven Economy takes you behind the scenes for a new perspective, and a more informed look at where the world needs to begin changing.
The second half of the book will take a look at the revolution driving financial technology. Companies in Silicon Valley and giants like Alibaba are challenging the landscape for banking. This has profound implications for policy makers, banks and for a new class of entrepreneurs who are developing software which is taking away market share from bank and challenging decades-old financial empires. The book will explore the reasons why many global banks remain flat-footed. It will go into detail about the new companies and software that are moving in the Far East and with innovations in securities, bonds, foreign exchange, retail lending and SME lending. Lastly the book will look at the strategy behind Alibaba and how it will challenge many companies from a powerful base inside China.
Acknowledgments xvii
About the Author xix
About the Website xxi
Introduction: A Few Numbers Can Crack the Code xxiii
PART ONE How Bank Credit Drives Economics (Not the Other Way Around) and Why
CHAPTER 1 A Few Simple Concepts That Anyone Can Understand 3
CHAPTER 2 Differences between Liquidity and Solvency Are Thin 23
CHAPTER 3 Anatomy of a Credit Crisis and Examples in the Real World 33
PART TWO I Am from the Government, and I Am Here to Help Your Broken Banking System
CHAPTER 4 Socialization of Debt after Mismanagement by Bankers (or, Why Keynesian Economics Doesn’t Work) 55
CHAPTER 5 Why Capitalist Bankers Create Soviet Banking Models When the Going Gets Rough 75
CHAPTER 6 Central Banks Are Carrying the Greatest Load and Will Dominate Outcomes 89
CHAPTER 7 How Bankers and Policy Rescuers Affect Stocks, Foreign Exchange, and Property 103
PART THREE Interlude
CHAPTER 8 Why Government and Institutions Get Suckered into Debt Binges 119
PART FOUR The Revolution in Financial Architecture
CHAPTER 9 Why Is This Revolution Happening Now and Why So Fast? 135
CHAPTER 10 The Revolution in Alternative Investments 145
CHAPTER 11 The Revolution in Big Data and SME Lending in the Emerging World 157
CHAPTER 12 Banking and Analytics—The PayPal Gang, Palantir versus Alibaba, and Hundsun 177
Appendix 195
Bibliography 197
Index 199
PRAISE FOR THE NEXT REVOLUTION IN OUR CREDIT-DRIVEN ECONOMY
"Schulte brings an element of "been there, done that" to this book about how finance truthfully operates. This book should be (read by) any student of Finance and Economics and should be made compulsory for any practicing central banker."
DAVID DREDGE, Fortress Investments
"Paul is one of the most astute commentators globally in his understanding of the new financial architecture. A must read for anyone following financial markets."
AMIT RAJPAL, Marshall Wace
"This book is a wakeup call to bankers on the disruption posed by new financial technologies to commercial banking's "business as usual" attitude."
EUGENE GALBRAITH, Bank Central Asia
"Schulte poses the question of whether or not banks as we know them will survive the challenges of the digital revolution."
JAMES STENT, China Everbright Bank
"This book should be read by financial professionals, regulators, political leaders and anyone trying to manage a portfolio."
WILLIAM OVERHOLT, Fung Global Institute
"This lucidly written and brilliant book will allow readers to know who will survive the financial revolution. Those who do not pick up a copy of this book do so at their peril."
BHASKAR CHAKRAVORTI, The Fletcher School at Tufts University
"Schulte helps guide us to the beginning of the cross-section of technology and finance, a merger of two worlds that will likely dominate the global economic discussion for the next decade."
MINH DUC DO, Gerson Lehrman Group
"This timely work shows how the technology and big data revolution is spawning new models of financial intermediation that threaten banks."
SIMON OGUS, DSG Asia Limited
CREDIT DRIVES THE PRICE OF JUST ABOUT everything investors touch, from equities and bonds to currencies and real estate. Countries that lend more than they save consistently suffer from catastrophic consequences. The Next Revolution In Our Credit-Driven Economy unbundles exactly how credit markets function to give investment professionals an insider's edge to detecting and avoiding credit crises so investors can make money and policymakers can lay the groundwork for sound economic growth.
Through an illuminating look at extensive examples taken from the author's firsthand work in equity research and economic policy, this groundbreaking guide demonstrates how loan/deposit ratios behave around the globe and examines the credit cycle of a country. Without the use of complicated mathematics, it brings to life the reality-backed theory behind equity, real estate, and currency prices rising and falling with credit and shows how these asset classes react at different trends in the cycle. By understanding and accurately reading credit cycles, you can:
- Effectively implement the included timetable for getting in and out of various asset classes
- Identify and predict the repeatable phenomenon of equity prices accelerating to the upside to form bubbles
- Gain a superior strategic advantage by leveraging the wealth of economic data culled from credit dynamics
The second half of the book is dedicated to keeping you ahead of the curve by exploring the revolution driving financial technology and the new class of entrepreneurs developing software to challenge decades-old financial empires. In-depth examinations open up such industry giants as PayPal, which has continued developing innovative software that is exponentially increasing capacity for mass storage, security, research, applications and computation. Progressive companies like Alibaba have banks worried over new forms of funding, analysis, research, credit checking, trading and lending.
Produktdetaljer
Biografisk notat
PAUL SCHULTE runs Schulte Research, his own financial services consultancy based in Hong Kong where he is a permanent resident. His clients include sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, exchanges, and regulators. His policy experience includes work with the National Security Council at the White House in the 1980s and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance in the early 1990s. He specialized in investment strategy and research in financials with Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers, Nomura and China Construction Bank Intl. over a 20-year period.
In the academic world, he is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Emerging Markets Enterprises at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Boston, Massachusetts. He is also a Visiting Scholar in the MBA programs at both Hong Kong University and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. In addition, he has lectured at MBA programs at Tsinghua, Fudan, NYU Stern School, FGV (Rio), LBS, UCLA, Loyola Marymount, Northwestern, among others.